A year (and a bit) ago, I blogged some crazy predictions for fun. Let’s go back and see how they turned out. :)
“First of all, pretty soon kde geeks will complain more about people assuming they have firefox and a google account than windows, IE and office.”
…this one’s hard to judge, but actually chromium seems to be taking over from firefox now, and with our webkit options browsing isn’t so hard. People are still using google spreadsheets for kde community things, and other people are still unhappy about it, though – and I can’t remember how long it’s been since I’ve had to work around some silly windows-only thing.
“Eventually everyone will get a google wave account, play with it, and get bored. Wave & google docs usage will rise steadily, though. That slowly rising tide will worry us, until finally someone says Enough and starts a real movement for Free services & data.”
Google What? :) Wave was a flop, it seems – I think I know one person who might still be using it. Google docs does worry some of us, though, and Frank was the one who got fed up and started OwnCloud, and now vandenoever is working on webodf too :)
“Twitter and facebook are boring now… They’ll still hang around, people will use them, but like icq, eventually most people just won’t care.”
Well, twitter’s not exactly exciting these days, but it’s still getting a lot of use. More like msn than icq (at least to me – everyone in Vancouver has an msn account, even now)
“Kde will still be using svn. Every few months someone will get fed up and go do one of the tasks needed for git migration. Many developers will have switched to gitsvn for the project they contribute to most – hey, at least they’ll be used to git terminology when we’re finally ready to switch to real git.”
Yeah, this one was fairly accurate :/ The predictions were made in october 2009, and in october 2010 we had just gotten git.kde.org up (thanks to our wonderful awesome sysadmins), and were moving things over from gitorious. Near the end of october we got servers donated to make the svn2git process actually feasible. :) The good news is, a few short weeks and we will actually have kdelibs, kdebase and hopefully several other modules moved to git! :) So… we are still on svn, but not for much longer.
As for gitsvn… I really don’t know how many people are using it, but I do see commitbombs here and there…
“Chromium will slowly gain ground as people tire of firefox. Tragic, really; nobody will step forward with a qwebkit-based browser to compete. Konq will still be largely ignored (even though it’s become a good browser again), arora and rekonq will stay toy projects. No marketing, no mindshare, few users. Remeber getfirefox.com? Why aren’t we doing something like that? we (theoretically) support as many websites as chrome because we’re all using webkit (or khtml). all they’ve got on us is speed, the Google brand, and the Google marketing.”
Crap, I was hoping I’d be wrong here. :( But it’s all coming true… I’m actually happy with konq these days, but I seem to be the only one. I haven’t heard much from Rekonq in a while – although I know it has users, at least.
“…And yet everyone will still have firefox installed, for those websites that just won’t work anywhere else.”
I do. I bet you do too. Although, I’m finding more and more of them work in webkit… :) Perhaps in 2011 I’ll be able to uninstall FF.
” Plasma-netbook will make a big splash, and contribute to KDE’s rising visibility.. Many distros will still ignore it, but one will switch its focus to kde, and then another… other areas of KDE will mature, and the benefits of our Pillars of KDE will shine through… In two years we’ll be the default on most distros. Gnome won’t know what hit them ;)”
Whoops, a two-year prediction. Well, I’m not sure how much of a splash plasma-netbook made. I know a couple of people who tried it and didn’t like it; neither could be convinced to contribute fixes. Personally I’m too busy putting activity stuff into kwin and plasma-desktop ;)
What *is* happening, thogh, is a shift to Qt.. or at least rumours of such. the qt-everywhere message has been spreading. Distros are either doing their own netbook thing, or going with meego (although plasma-netbook is packaged for meego now, and there are other secret netbook things happening, so this is far from over). Gnome… doesn’t seem to be having much luck at the moment, but we’re too darn nice to take advantage of that.
“The web movement will grow. Web this, web that, web everything. And we’ll have to put up with it, because it’s going to be a while before the hype wears off and people start to get tired of the web’s disadvantages. Oh, and many people will decide to try and work around those disadvantages instead of trying to bring the web’s advantages to non-web stuff.”
Yep. web web web, my school is even offering a course where students will write a web app for meego (whatever that means). On the other hand, there’s also the “apps apps apps” thing thanks to mobile devices… although I’ve heard a lot of those apps are rather webby too.
“Silk will come out, and that’ll help. It’ll make things less stupidly painful… But in a way it’s just treating a symptom. And websites change, so stuff will break. Of course i’m sure silk will include ghns updates for stuff that’s likely to get broken… and it *will* be cool and awesome… But it’s still treating a symptom.”
What happened to silk? :/ It seems to have vanished…
“The upside of silk’s approach, though, is the short-term gain. Kde-workspace will become the webby desktop, the shiny cool convenient thing that’s better than living in firefox. :) And while that’s gaining us users and making people happy and helping our developers learn about what does and doesn’t work, maybe we can try and come up with something better than the web. something with the advantages of both desktop and internet without the pain of being built on top of infrastructure originally designed for serving & displaying static html pages.”
Yeah, totally didn’t happen. :(
“Oh, and then swine flu will mutate and kill us all! …no :P people will have practicaly forgotten about it in a year. remember SARS?”
Haha, swine flu. I’d forgotten about that. :)
“someone will start going around to different applications, porting each one to use nepomuk where appropriate, so that its usage grows… but users still won’t know it’s there unless strigi tries to eat their computer (which will, of course, be blamed on nepomuk. or plasma. everything is plasma). :)”
Hrm.. at first I thought this was wrong; While nepomuk has seen improvements, I thought it was still only being used by dolphin and kontact. But then I did some poking… it can record the source of files downloaded by konqueror. It’s going to be involved in some telepathy thingy. It stores the custom icons for activities. I think there was something about koffice too, although I can’t remember it. For 4.7 we’ll hopefully have apps using it to record what resources they’re using and link them to activities n’stuff – but there hasn’t been time to do that yet. So… the second part is certainly true – even *I* don’t really know where nepomuk is – but I’m not sure if I can count the first part as true or not.
So, what’s my score? Six mostly right, Three mostly wrong, and three unclear. That adds up to +3… yay, I’m right more often than I’m wrong. :) haha.
Perhaps I should make a new set of predictions… hmm, not now though. I’m hungry. …and having to limit my computer time, too. RSI sucks.